Spain and England go into Sunday night in Madrid with first place in Nations League Group A3 on the line. Both won on Thursday, so Spain sit on 15 points and England on 12, and both are already in the quarter-finals. A draw is enough for the world champions; England have to win. That should give the game a proper edge, and both teams to score is still the way in.
| Pick | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| BEST BET: Both teams to score | 8/13 | 1pt win |
| Win: Spain to win | 8/11 | 1pt win |
| Acca: Spain to win, France to win (v Türkiye), Croatia to win (v Czechia) | around 9/4 (calculated) | 0.5pt win |
Prices: bet365 odds as listed on OddsPortal, checked 08:24–08:25 UK, Sat 14 Nov: Spain to win 8/11 (1.73), both teams to score 8/13 (1.62), France to win v Türkiye 2/9 (1.22) and Croatia to win v Czechia 11/20 (1.55). The acca price of around 9/4 is calculated from those three bet365 leg prices, not a quoted acca price, and all prices can move before kick-off. Our earlier acca lost: it needed Scotland to score in both halves and they were goalless at half-time before winning 2‑1 on Friday, so that leg lost. England v Croatia (2‑1) had won. Our other international previews this week are England v Croatia and Scotland v North Macedonia.
Spain v England Prediction & Team News
Kick-off: 7.45pm (UK), Sunday 15 November, Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. TV: ITV1. Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A Group A3.
Thursday’s results
England 2‑1 Croatia: Morgan Rogers bundled England ahead on 24 minutes from Jude Bellingham’s cross. Petar Sučić punished a loose Jarell Quansah header back to Jordan Pickford on 59 minutes, but Quansah then won the penalty that Harry Kane put away on 64 minutes. It was Kane’s 126th cap, making him England’s most-capped men’s player, and his 92nd England goal. It was a long way short of the 7‑0 in Rijeka, and Croatia had chances late on.
Czechia 0‑2 Spain: Álex Baena scored a 39th-minute penalty after a VAR check for handball, and Marc Pubill added a second in stoppage time. Czech captain Ladislav Krejčí was sent off in the second half. Spain had a Yéremy Pino goal ruled out for offside and Fabián Ruiz hit the post, while Adam Hložek headed against the bar for the Czechs.
What it means for Group A3
- Spain 15 pts (+9), England 12 pts (+12), Croatia 3 pts, Czechia 0 pts. Spain and England are both through to the quarter-finals; Sunday decides who finishes first.
- Spain top the group with a draw or a win.
- England must win. Spain won 3‑2 at Wembley, so a two-goal England win settles it on head-to-head. A one-goal win leaves the head-to-head level and sends it further down UEFA’s tie-breakers, where England’s better overall goal difference would be expected to count.
Team news
Spain: Confirmed: Rodri (hamstring) and Dani Olmo are out injured and were not in this squad, and Eric García is also missing. Pedro Porro and Mikel Merino were booked in Prague; we have seen no confirmation of any Spain suspension. Expected: Lamine Yamal missed Thursday with inflammation in his right knee, and Mikel Oyarzabal stayed at home after the birth of his second child. Luis de la Fuente said after the game that both join the squad on Friday and will be available on Sunday.
England: Confirmed: Ezri Konsa (knee) and Djed Spence missed Thursday’s game against Croatia, Konsa as a precaution. Marc Guéhi (hip) has left the squad and misses this one. John Stones, Trevoh Chalobah and Harry Maguire are also out, and Bukayo Saka is not in the squad. Myles Lewis-Skelly has served his one-match ban and is available again. No new England injury from Thursday has been confirmed. Doubtful: Asked about Konsa and Spence, Thomas Tuchel said: “The hope and the belief is that they’re both in individual training on Friday, team training on Saturday and match ready on Sunday.” That is a hope, not a confirmed return, so both players’ fitness is still to be confirmed.
Predicted line-ups
Spain (predicted): Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Huijsen, Cucurella; Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz; Yamal, Fermín López, Baena; Oyarzabal. This is the side that started in Prague, with Yamal and Oyarzabal back in for Pino and Ferran Torres if both are fit to start.
England (predicted): Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Konsa, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, Jude Bellingham, Gordon; Kane. This is Thursday’s XI with Konsa in for Dan Burn. If Konsa isn’t ready, Burn keeps his place.
Form (Nations League)
Spain: W 2‑0 Czechia (a), W 2‑1 Croatia (a), W 3‑1 Czechia (h), W 4‑1 Croatia (h), W 3‑2 England (a).
England: W 2‑1 Croatia (h), W 3‑0 Czechia (h), W 7‑0 Croatia (a), W 2‑0 Czechia (a), L 2‑3 Spain (h).
Key stats & head-to-head
- Spain have won all five group games, scoring 14 and conceding five. They have won 12 in a row and are unbeaten in 43 matches in all competitions.
- England have scored 16 and conceded four in the group. They have conceded in two of their five games: against Spain and on Thursday against Croatia.
- Spain have scored in every group game, and both teams have scored in four of Spain’s five.
- Kane now has seven Nations League goals this campaign.
- Head-to-head: Spain won 3‑2 at Wembley on 26 September, and 2‑1 in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin.
- Cards: in their recent matches with stats available, Spain have averaged 1.5 yellow cards a game and England 0.5.
Verdict & prediction
The maths shapes this one. Spain only need a point, but de la Fuente’s side don’t really do sitting on a lead, and they get Yamal and Oyarzabal back, two of their three scorers at Wembley. England have to come and win, so they can’t settle for keeping it tight.
England’s back line is the worry. Guéhi is gone, Konsa is a doubt, and Thursday’s goal came straight from a defensive mistake against a Croatia side England had beaten 7‑0 a month earlier. Going forward, though, they have Kane, who has seven goals in five Nations League games. Spain are without Rodri and Olmo but still controlled Prague, and they have the home crowd behind them.
We think both sides score and Spain just about edge it again. The main threat to the goals markets is Spain managing the game for the draw once they go ahead.
Prediction: Spain 2‑1 England.
WIN
BEST BET: Both teams to score | 8/13
Spain have scored in every group game, England have scored in every game they’ve played since the World Cup, and the Wembley meeting finished 3‑2. England need the win, so they have to commit bodies forward, which leaves space for Yamal and company. The risk is Spain sitting on a lead, or England’s patched-up defence holding firm while their attack misfires the way it did for long spells on Thursday.
WIN
Spain to win | 8/11
Spain are unbeaten in 43, have won 12 in a row, already beat England in this group and are at home with Yamal back. It’s a short price, but England’s defence is thin and was shaky on Thursday. The risk is a cagey Spain happy with a draw, or Kane doing what Kane does.
WIN
Acca: Spain to win, France to win, Croatia to win | around 9/4 (calculated)
Our first acca lost. Scotland were goalless at half-time against North Macedonia before winning 2‑1 (McGinn 54 and 74 pen, Rastoder 57), so the "score in both halves" leg failed, even though England to win & BTTS had won against Croatia. This is a fresh treble of Sunday 15 November games at 7.45pm: Spain v England, France v Türkiye and Croatia v Czechia. At bet365’s 8/11 (Spain), 2/9 (France) and 11/20 (Croatia), the treble comes to around 9/4, calculated from those individual prices rather than a quoted acca price. Take the combined price shown on bet365. The risk is a draw in Madrid, which suits Spain, or an upset in either of the other games.
Our Selections
BEST BET: Both teams to score
Game: Spain v England
Kick-off (UK): Sun 15 Nov, 7.45pm
Odds (bet365): 8/13
Stake: 1pt win
Spain to win
Game: Spain v England
Kick-off (UK): Sun 15 Nov, 7.45pm
Odds (bet365): 8/11
Stake: 1pt win
Acca: Spain to win, France to win, Croatia to win (replaces the lost Scotland acca)
Game: Spain v England / France v Türkiye / Croatia v Czechia
Kick-off (UK): Sun 15 Nov, 7.45pm (all three)
Odds (bet365): around 9/4, calculated from the individual prices (legs 8/11, 2/9, 11/20)
Stake: 0.5pt win
FAQ
What time is Spain v England?
It kicks off at 7.45pm (UK) on Sunday 15 November at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid.
What channel is Spain v England on?
It’s live on ITV1 in the UK.
What do England need to top the group?
A win. Spain finish first with a draw or better. A two-goal England win settles it on head-to-head; a one-goal win goes to UEFA’s further tie-breakers.
Is Lamine Yamal fit?
He missed Thursday with a knee problem, but Luis de la Fuente says he joins up on Friday and will be available.
What is your Spain v England prediction?
Spain 2‑1 England. Our Best Bet is both teams to score at 8/13.
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